* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 38 36 34 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 38 36 34 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 37 35 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 8 7 5 1 6 9 13 20 33 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 4 3 3 8 0 8 2 10 9 11 SHEAR DIR 77 80 74 53 58 28 156 291 236 235 235 243 230 SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.3 24.7 24.1 23.6 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 134 130 125 115 109 103 97 94 93 92 92 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 51 47 40 36 32 29 30 35 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 11 10 7 6 4 3 2 4 850 MB ENV VOR 84 81 60 57 60 62 68 46 51 49 51 40 30 200 MB DIV 30 9 -18 -25 -22 -26 -24 -1 5 3 -3 10 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 3 2 -1 2 -2 2 1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 952 961 976 1003 1014 1079 1201 1314 1433 1520 1570 1602 1614 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.9 22.2 22.7 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.8 120.4 121.1 121.8 123.5 125.2 126.8 128.4 129.6 130.6 131.1 131.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -11. -15. -19. -20. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -6. -12. -17. -23. -26. -31. -34. -42. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.1 119.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.52 -1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.4% 10.9% 10.1% 6.3% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.9% 3.7% 3.4% 2.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX