* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 83 85 87 84 76 70 61 55 48 44 45 V (KT) LAND 75 80 83 85 87 84 76 70 61 55 48 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 83 86 86 84 76 67 59 52 46 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 2 2 6 13 15 18 28 37 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 6 9 6 8 11 12 6 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 19 20 141 156 249 222 217 222 205 204 199 221 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 127 125 124 120 117 115 116 119 124 129 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 124 121 119 113 110 107 108 110 114 117 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -53.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 70 71 69 64 56 53 50 51 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 33 33 34 33 31 31 28 27 25 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 48 42 39 32 41 45 53 44 84 75 83 200 MB DIV 52 64 69 25 30 23 18 41 25 26 34 57 44 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -4 -1 6 5 4 4 8 14 8 22 LAND (KM) 1154 1291 1429 1562 1696 1933 2104 2118 2181 2318 2489 2307 1993 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.0 17.0 18.3 19.9 22.2 25.0 28.1 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 28.2 29.5 30.8 32.0 33.3 35.5 37.2 38.4 39.5 40.4 41.1 41.5 41.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 11 13 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -11. -15. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 12. 9. 1. -5. -14. -20. -27. -31. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.1 28.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.59 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.19 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 22.0% 19.3% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.2% 18.3% 9.7% 4.2% 2.9% 5.2% 3.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 23.4% 31.8% 11.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 13.6% 24.0% 13.4% 7.1% 1.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 8.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 10( 22) 9( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 83 85 87 84 76 70 61 55 48 44 45 18HR AGO 75 74 77 79 81 78 70 64 55 49 42 38 39 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 75 72 64 58 49 43 36 32 33 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 64 56 50 41 35 28 24 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 83 74 68 64 56 50 41 35 28 24 25