* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 75 73 68 61 51 43 38 34 27 24 V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 75 73 68 61 51 43 38 34 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 77 76 74 70 64 56 48 42 38 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 4 4 10 14 18 25 29 32 37 41 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 1 2 9 11 8 11 5 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 284 315 301 263 239 237 240 255 263 268 265 255 244 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 136 142 145 147 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 28 28 29 29 29 29 30 34 34 38 40 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 18 18 17 16 13 11 11 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 21 30 28 40 53 53 75 68 69 65 64 200 MB DIV 6 6 -5 -5 -3 4 -3 -25 -8 -19 7 7 7 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 4 1 0 0 -3 -3 0 1 6 10 LAND (KM) 897 801 706 607 510 301 97 85 232 382 604 839 1049 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.3 21.0 20.7 20.2 19.6 19.3 19.4 19.7 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 146.5 147.5 148.4 149.4 150.3 152.4 154.7 157.1 159.5 162.1 164.9 167.5 169.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 1 1 13 8 11 24 35 31 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 0. -2. -7. -14. -24. -32. -37. -41. -48. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.7 146.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 865.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX