* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 96 97 96 88 79 70 58 47 42 45 49 V (KT) LAND 90 94 96 97 96 88 79 70 58 47 42 45 49 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 96 96 93 84 74 65 57 52 48 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 4 2 11 9 16 22 34 33 31 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 3 9 7 10 12 10 6 0 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 8 6 63 102 220 224 205 191 199 200 198 209 229 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.8 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 124 121 118 114 112 112 114 117 124 128 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 124 120 117 113 107 104 104 105 108 113 115 113 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -53.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 72 70 66 59 50 47 43 47 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 34 34 31 31 30 27 24 23 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 55 47 40 36 38 38 41 51 43 62 84 91 63 200 MB DIV 75 75 39 45 62 22 2 47 29 19 46 39 8 700-850 TADV -5 -12 -7 -6 0 3 2 8 9 14 6 9 19 LAND (KM) 1280 1413 1546 1680 1815 2021 2127 2182 2291 2404 2475 2164 1911 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.6 17.7 19.3 21.3 23.8 26.7 29.7 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.6 31.9 33.1 34.4 36.3 37.6 38.7 39.6 40.3 40.8 41.0 40.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 11 9 9 10 12 14 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -9. -16. -22. -27. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -12. -17. -20. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. -2. -11. -20. -32. -43. -48. -45. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.4 29.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.53 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 21.1% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 17.6% 9.3% 4.7% 3.1% 3.7% 1.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 26.4% 17.2% 5.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.9% 18.6% 11.1% 1.8% 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 19( 29) 19( 42) 11( 49) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 94 96 97 96 88 79 70 58 47 42 45 49 18HR AGO 90 89 91 92 91 83 74 65 53 42 37 40 44 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 86 78 69 60 48 37 32 35 39 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 71 62 53 41 30 25 28 32 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 63 54 45 33 22 17 20 24 IN 6HR 90 94 85 79 76 69 60 51 39 28 23 26 30 IN 12HR 90 94 96 87 81 77 68 59 47 36 31 34 38