* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 27 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 7 6 3 1 7 10 20 34 43 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 8 4 9 3 11 9 15 1 SHEAR DIR 58 59 72 71 59 82 346 201 216 229 244 230 226 SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.5 23.8 23.2 22.3 21.9 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 127 122 118 100 93 83 78 75 80 84 89 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 53 49 45 42 39 33 31 27 29 32 36 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 60 60 62 61 61 42 40 36 42 31 35 22 200 MB DIV -18 -13 -12 -26 -24 -7 -5 11 -3 12 44 -2 -11 700-850 TADV -1 4 3 1 -1 4 -2 1 1 2 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 949 976 990 1031 1079 1183 1300 1415 1505 1534 1592 1649 1720 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.5 22.8 23.3 23.7 23.9 23.6 23.6 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.0 121.7 122.6 123.5 125.2 126.7 128.2 129.5 130.3 130.8 131.7 133.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 5 3 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -3. -8. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -22. -25. -28. -32. -36. -43. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 120.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX