* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 97 98 97 87 76 68 55 44 44 44 52 V (KT) LAND 90 94 97 98 97 87 76 68 55 44 44 44 52 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 96 94 90 81 72 63 56 50 48 50 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 3 6 13 14 19 28 37 38 31 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 6 6 7 9 5 9 0 -4 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 351 23 331 205 174 235 213 226 208 220 205 230 225 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.5 27.1 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 124 120 118 116 113 112 113 116 120 127 130 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 115 111 110 105 103 104 107 111 115 113 110 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 71 69 62 54 48 42 42 42 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 35 35 33 30 31 27 24 26 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 52 45 35 32 36 38 44 43 35 50 68 98 118 200 MB DIV 55 60 58 77 94 12 33 26 27 45 25 6 32 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -5 2 4 2 4 9 10 5 -1 11 0 LAND (KM) 1440 1579 1718 1820 1923 2111 2129 2214 2366 2420 2286 2015 1836 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 17.3 18.6 20.3 22.6 25.3 28.5 31.2 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 30.9 32.2 33.5 34.4 35.4 37.1 38.6 39.5 39.9 40.4 41.0 41.0 40.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 10 10 9 10 13 15 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -11. -17. -23. -28. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -11. -16. -15. -15. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 7. -3. -14. -22. -35. -46. -46. -46. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.7 30.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.1% 16.2% 9.3% 5.7% 3.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 25.8% 9.1% 4.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.4% 15.6% 4.6% 2.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 20( 30) 20( 44) 10( 49) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 94 97 98 97 87 76 68 55 44 44 44 52 18HR AGO 90 89 92 93 92 82 71 63 50 39 39 39 47 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 86 76 65 57 44 33 33 33 41 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 69 58 50 37 26 26 26 34 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 50 42 29 18 18 18 26 IN 6HR 90 94 85 79 76 70 59 51 38 27 27 27 35 IN 12HR 90 94 97 88 82 78 67 59 46 35 35 35 43