* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 61 59 58 55 49 43 39 36 34 36 37 V (KT) LAND 65 62 61 59 58 55 49 43 39 36 34 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 59 58 55 50 45 42 39 38 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 10 13 14 21 28 31 33 34 33 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 7 7 9 6 9 4 0 -3 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 326 264 227 237 252 254 267 267 276 266 251 240 311 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 130 132 132 134 139 144 148 151 148 150 152 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 28 29 29 30 31 33 33 36 40 42 44 46 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 16 13 11 11 12 13 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 12 23 24 31 39 57 59 70 71 74 73 80 75 200 MB DIV 1 7 -15 1 3 -15 -24 -21 -26 4 9 11 0 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 1 0 0 -3 -5 -1 -1 5 10 -1 LAND (KM) 729 628 528 428 330 133 47 178 327 546 796 1037 1273 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.2 20.9 20.4 20.0 19.8 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 148.2 149.2 150.2 151.2 152.2 154.4 156.8 159.2 161.9 164.5 167.2 169.7 172.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 4 11 8 5 30 32 33 20 23 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -16. -22. -26. -29. -31. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.7 148.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 733.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX