* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 30 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 7 5 3 4 10 17 27 36 46 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 4 6 4 8 6 8 13 15 9 4 SHEAR DIR 58 68 68 66 65 79 143 200 219 232 236 227 234 SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.4 24.4 23.6 22.8 22.2 21.9 21.7 21.7 21.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 120 117 106 97 89 82 78 74 75 77 84 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 49 46 42 40 36 33 31 27 31 34 37 35 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 11 11 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 60 60 66 46 38 32 36 36 28 19 0 200 MB DIV -13 -5 -26 -20 -7 -15 2 -16 12 23 25 -17 -9 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 -1 5 LAND (KM) 953 981 1016 1072 1133 1239 1345 1448 1510 1528 1540 1582 1646 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.7 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 120.9 121.7 122.6 123.5 124.4 125.9 127.3 128.6 129.6 130.2 130.4 131.2 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 2 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 0. -6. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -11. -17. -22. -27. -31. -33. -38. -46. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.1 120.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX