* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 91 89 88 78 68 57 49 43 42 43 47 V (KT) LAND 90 91 91 89 88 78 68 57 49 43 42 43 47 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 88 86 82 74 64 57 52 48 46 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 6 8 9 15 18 25 35 36 38 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 5 5 11 8 9 3 0 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 25 284 262 223 203 214 201 211 209 201 209 220 243 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.2 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 116 113 112 110 111 113 118 123 128 130 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 113 110 106 105 102 102 104 108 111 114 115 107 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -53.1 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 70 66 55 50 42 36 39 37 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 35 34 35 32 30 28 27 25 25 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 50 37 39 39 42 51 50 39 54 65 78 114 95 200 MB DIV 52 63 91 107 54 33 41 35 29 61 37 43 40 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -2 1 0 5 9 9 12 3 -6 5 11 LAND (KM) 1546 1660 1774 1878 1982 2141 2187 2256 2324 2387 2187 2000 1942 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.1 18.5 20.1 22.1 24.5 27.3 30.2 33.0 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 31.9 32.9 34.0 34.9 35.9 37.3 38.0 38.8 39.5 39.8 39.4 37.9 35.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 11 13 14 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -20. -25. -30. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -15. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -12. -21. -33. -41. -47. -48. -47. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.3 31.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 4.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 11( 31) 6( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 91 91 89 88 78 68 57 49 43 42 43 47 18HR AGO 90 89 89 87 86 76 66 55 47 41 40 41 45 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 83 73 63 52 44 38 37 38 42 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 69 59 48 40 34 33 34 38 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 51 40 32 26 25 26 30 IN 6HR 90 91 82 76 73 66 56 45 37 31 30 31 35 IN 12HR 90 91 91 82 76 72 62 51 43 37 36 37 41