* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 52 50 48 46 42 38 37 36 36 40 39 V (KT) LAND 60 55 52 50 48 46 42 38 37 36 36 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 60 56 53 51 50 48 44 40 38 37 37 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 16 19 20 28 35 32 33 37 21 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 7 6 8 6 6 1 -4 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 281 240 248 259 263 258 264 272 275 268 257 281 323 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.5 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 131 131 132 134 140 146 148 148 147 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 -55.2 -55.3 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 27 28 29 29 30 33 34 40 39 44 44 44 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 15 14 15 12 11 11 13 14 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 28 40 42 58 53 67 60 71 70 74 77 200 MB DIV 6 -7 -8 -7 0 -20 -1 -20 -5 6 -6 -9 5 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 1 -6 -6 1 2 4 0 -4 LAND (KM) 640 538 439 343 251 46 67 181 395 643 900 1159 1421 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.1 20.7 20.5 20.4 20.5 20.8 21.3 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 149.2 150.3 151.3 152.4 153.4 155.7 158.1 160.6 163.2 165.8 168.4 171.0 173.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 8 8 5 23 22 48 20 20 29 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -18. -22. -23. -24. -24. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.9 149.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 691.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.04 -0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX