* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 30 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 5 4 4 4 12 17 29 35 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 6 7 4 10 6 15 12 13 4 6 SHEAR DIR 58 62 58 68 61 63 177 220 234 247 239 233 233 SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.5 24.6 24.1 23.4 22.9 22.5 22.1 22.2 22.6 22.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 118 108 103 95 89 85 80 80 84 88 91 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 46 42 39 37 33 32 28 29 33 37 37 32 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 5 4 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 61 61 68 55 34 30 18 28 20 12 0 -13 200 MB DIV -2 -26 -23 -5 -4 -15 4 0 16 37 0 -8 -6 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 2 1 -2 0 2 0 -1 -3 -2 5 LAND (KM) 975 1020 1071 1131 1195 1293 1396 1494 1558 1594 1633 1684 1738 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.5 23.2 23.2 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.5 123.4 124.3 125.2 126.5 127.8 129.0 130.1 130.7 130.9 131.7 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 6 6 5 4 2 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -7. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -11. -17. -23. -28. -30. -35. -42. -49. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.4 121.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX