* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 92 88 84 72 60 48 39 33 30 29 28 V (KT) LAND 95 94 92 88 84 72 60 48 39 33 30 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 95 94 90 85 79 69 60 53 47 43 40 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 8 11 14 23 32 42 43 48 54 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 5 13 16 7 7 -3 -1 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 304 255 257 240 248 217 226 217 219 210 218 226 233 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 115 112 112 110 111 116 119 124 128 127 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 109 108 106 104 101 103 106 108 111 114 113 98 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 66 62 54 46 37 36 34 35 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 34 34 34 31 29 27 26 25 23 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 39 38 44 51 40 29 40 55 61 72 46 200 MB DIV 51 68 82 52 34 76 14 14 18 33 37 38 11 700-850 TADV -2 6 4 4 1 10 10 10 8 -4 -8 -2 -11 LAND (KM) 1686 1778 1871 1972 2075 2181 2210 2260 2313 2316 2198 2031 1961 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 17.1 17.8 19.1 20.9 23.2 25.7 28.5 31.2 34.4 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.2 34.1 34.9 35.8 36.7 37.8 38.3 38.9 39.3 38.8 37.3 35.3 32.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 11 10 8 11 12 13 15 16 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -30. -35. -38. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -19. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -11. -23. -35. -47. -56. -62. -65. -66. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.7 33.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 13( 28) 9( 34) 4( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 94 92 88 84 72 60 48 39 33 30 29 28 18HR AGO 95 94 92 88 84 72 60 48 39 33 30 29 28 12HR AGO 95 92 91 87 83 71 59 47 38 32 29 28 27 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 81 69 57 45 36 30 27 26 25 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 64 52 40 31 25 22 21 20 IN 6HR 95 94 85 79 76 69 57 45 36 30 27 26 25 IN 12HR 95 94 92 83 77 73 61 49 40 34 31 30 29