* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 54 51 48 42 38 36 35 35 33 31 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 54 51 43 42 38 36 35 35 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 56 54 50 45 40 37 35 33 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 17 18 22 26 31 33 35 33 24 15 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 8 6 5 9 5 -2 -2 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 247 250 249 256 262 269 266 273 268 267 296 326 315 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.8 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 131 131 132 137 143 148 149 148 148 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -54.2 -55.1 -55.5 -55.9 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 28 28 27 28 30 30 34 40 40 44 46 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 14 15 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 39 43 48 61 67 62 74 72 67 59 51 200 MB DIV 3 0 3 2 -29 1 -27 -20 -22 -9 -9 -4 -16 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -2 -8 -3 -3 2 7 4 -4 -9 LAND (KM) 593 488 388 281 190 -5 130 274 471 676 917 1206 1523 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.4 20.9 20.4 20.1 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.9 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 149.7 150.8 151.9 153.0 154.2 156.4 159.0 161.5 163.8 166.1 168.6 171.5 174.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 6 8 7 3 29 28 40 20 21 34 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. -24. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -22. -24. -25. -25. -26. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.9 149.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 689.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.04 -0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 12.0% 8.9% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.0% 3.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX