* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 50 48 44 40 35 31 31 33 34 34 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 50 48 44 40 35 32 31 34 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 50 48 45 42 38 36 35 35 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 18 23 27 32 34 38 39 30 18 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 10 8 6 6 7 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 243 248 258 261 267 271 270 277 274 267 275 330 326 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 131 132 133 138 144 148 149 148 148 150 149 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 28 26 27 29 31 33 40 39 43 46 49 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 13 12 12 11 12 13 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 25 32 40 43 47 50 61 59 65 65 57 44 30 200 MB DIV 0 2 0 -26 -37 -4 -22 -8 -19 5 -11 -4 -16 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 -3 -5 -7 -3 -1 3 8 8 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 503 400 297 207 109 71 190 311 518 743 968 1196 1400 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.3 20.7 20.1 19.9 19.8 20.2 21.0 21.8 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 150.7 151.8 152.9 154.0 155.1 157.3 159.5 161.8 164.2 166.7 169.1 171.4 173.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 7 6 5 11 28 31 41 22 22 32 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -16. -23. -28. -30. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -24. -22. -21. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.9 150.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 623.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX