* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 2 2 6 10 22 32 40 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 2 4 9 8 14 8 13 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 33 41 12 19 259 221 226 244 237 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.1 23.8 23.4 23.1 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.5 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 103 100 95 92 86 84 82 82 84 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 35 32 30 31 29 33 35 39 35 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 63 53 44 38 32 24 23 18 0 -9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -11 -16 -16 -8 6 5 -1 17 7 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -2 -2 0 1 -1 -1 -9 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1066 1136 1209 1272 1337 1461 1568 1600 1616 1653 1727 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.7 22.8 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.6 125.5 126.3 127.1 128.6 129.8 130.5 130.9 131.5 132.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 2 2 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 0. -8. -17. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -20. -24. -28. -36. -45. -48. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.2 123.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX