* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 82 76 71 60 46 36 27 23 23 25 27 V (KT) LAND 90 87 82 76 71 60 46 36 27 23 23 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 80 74 69 60 52 46 42 39 38 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 20 19 25 29 35 40 41 35 30 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 11 10 12 8 9 9 7 7 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 248 232 239 221 215 203 196 207 213 228 230 251 250 SST (C) 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.1 26.0 24.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 110 110 110 111 114 119 125 129 117 102 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 102 102 102 101 101 103 110 115 116 103 88 81 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.8 -54.7 -56.2 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 69 64 61 57 51 47 41 39 42 46 52 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 34 32 31 29 26 25 22 21 21 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 54 59 51 39 16 38 44 63 38 -7 -46 200 MB DIV 60 56 54 66 66 26 17 55 29 55 25 -3 9 700-850 TADV 5 8 6 12 13 14 8 12 7 26 16 12 22 LAND (KM) 1842 1918 1996 2060 2120 2144 2188 2203 2193 2112 1956 1897 1579 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.7 21.7 23.3 25.7 29.4 33.1 36.7 39.2 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.3 35.9 36.6 37.3 37.7 38.2 38.2 37.2 35.8 33.7 31.2 28.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 9 10 16 19 20 18 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -22. -26. -30. -33. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. -20. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -19. -30. -44. -54. -63. -67. -67. -65. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.8 34.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 544.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 8( 19) 4( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 82 76 71 60 46 36 27 23 23 25 27 18HR AGO 90 89 84 78 73 62 48 38 29 25 25 27 29 12HR AGO 90 87 86 80 75 64 50 40 31 27 27 29 31 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 64 50 40 31 27 27 29 31 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 60 46 36 27 23 23 25 27 IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 63 49 39 30 26 26 28 30 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT