* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 3 2 3 8 17 30 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 3 7 8 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 32 20 356 241 226 217 227 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.9 23.6 23.2 23.0 22.7 22.7 22.9 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 101 98 94 91 85 85 90 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 32 31 31 30 31 34 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 58 52 44 47 35 30 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -14 -18 -12 1 -13 9 1 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -3 0 0 -1 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1158 1227 1298 1376 1456 1560 1550 1630 1757 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.7 22.8 23.0 23.0 22.9 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.6 126.5 127.5 128.4 129.6 129.5 130.4 132.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 7 2 2 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -23. -30. -33. -35. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.2 124.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX