* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 74 68 63 52 40 30 25 20 23 23 22 V (KT) LAND 85 80 74 68 63 52 40 30 25 20 23 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 85 79 74 68 63 55 48 42 38 37 37 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 22 23 33 43 42 46 42 37 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 10 10 10 8 10 3 7 1 1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 236 241 227 220 216 210 212 216 229 233 232 260 267 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.9 27.2 25.6 23.4 21.4 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 110 110 110 110 111 115 119 126 130 114 97 87 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 102 101 103 105 108 115 118 101 86 77 74 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.8 -55.0 -56.4 -57.4 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 59 56 50 46 43 42 46 52 55 50 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 33 32 31 28 26 25 23 21 24 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 66 55 52 29 57 69 85 45 -18 -57 -60 200 MB DIV 61 70 86 91 57 17 39 58 38 33 4 12 23 700-850 TADV 9 8 12 15 15 19 22 15 31 21 0 12 41 LAND (KM) 1914 1989 2038 2079 2124 2139 2189 2234 2048 1898 1800 1454 1096 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.4 23.9 26.7 29.8 33.7 37.4 40.9 43.1 44.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.9 36.5 37.0 37.5 37.7 37.9 37.5 36.0 33.8 30.7 27.0 22.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 11 13 15 18 21 21 19 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -20. -25. -29. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -23. -26. -27. -27. -26. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -19. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -22. -33. -45. -55. -60. -65. -62. -62. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.6 35.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 589.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 80 74 68 63 52 40 30 25 20 23 23 22 18HR AGO 85 84 78 72 67 56 44 34 29 24 27 27 26 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 70 59 47 37 32 27 30 30 29 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 70 59 47 37 32 27 30 30 29 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 55 43 33 28 23 26 26 25 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT