* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 70 65 59 49 40 32 26 27 26 29 24 V (KT) LAND 80 75 70 65 59 49 40 32 26 27 26 29 24 V (KT) LGEM 80 75 69 64 60 53 47 41 37 37 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 24 29 38 43 44 48 41 33 34 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 12 6 6 6 5 7 1 -1 0 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 244 237 221 217 213 208 220 223 230 234 252 258 273 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.6 27.1 26.5 24.5 22.4 20.4 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 110 110 109 110 113 117 122 129 122 104 92 83 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 101 101 104 107 111 117 109 92 81 76 72 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -54.1 -55.4 -57.1 -57.3 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 56 50 45 44 40 45 47 56 49 48 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 29 28 27 25 22 20 22 22 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 52 64 57 49 40 30 69 84 85 13 -36 -51 -12 200 MB DIV 66 91 113 61 14 22 53 36 52 8 5 -6 37 700-850 TADV 12 16 12 18 15 13 19 28 30 4 2 4 53 LAND (KM) 1961 2001 2047 2082 2119 2140 2193 2163 1935 1872 1648 1303 968 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.6 22.6 25.4 28.5 32.0 36.0 39.3 42.1 44.3 46.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.6 36.1 36.7 37.1 37.5 37.6 37.5 36.6 34.8 32.4 29.2 25.2 20.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 15 17 19 20 19 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -21. -26. -30. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -21. -24. -28. -29. -29. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -15. -17. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -21. -31. -40. -48. -54. -53. -54. -51. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.7 35.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 589.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 75 70 65 59 49 40 32 26 27 26 29 24 18HR AGO 80 79 74 69 63 53 44 36 30 31 30 33 28 12HR AGO 80 77 76 71 65 55 46 38 32 33 32 35 30 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 64 54 45 37 31 32 31 34 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT