* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 30 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 30 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 30 28 24 22 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 28 32 35 35 34 38 42 39 34 30 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 5 6 2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 272 272 274 277 276 287 285 284 286 298 299 317 305 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 140 143 146 150 151 150 150 152 153 153 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.7 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 28 30 31 31 32 33 34 40 46 53 54 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 48 50 48 45 52 52 57 65 53 40 26 17 19 200 MB DIV -29 -38 -29 -6 -20 -2 -5 -22 -8 0 -13 -21 -28 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -1 -2 -6 -5 -5 -6 -4 0 -4 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 139 33 76 167 236 426 659 849 1012 1181 1373 1527 1675 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 20.5 20.1 19.8 19.5 19.1 18.9 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 154.3 155.6 156.9 158.2 159.4 162.5 165.2 167.3 169.1 170.9 172.9 174.5 176.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 12 13 14 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 16 31 34 34 40 27 22 21 24 32 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -29. -37. -41. -41. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -12. -15. -20. -25. -32. -37. -40. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.9 154.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 433.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX