* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 72 66 60 52 43 35 34 30 29 29 31 V (KT) LAND 80 76 72 66 60 52 43 35 34 30 29 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 80 76 71 66 61 55 50 46 44 43 42 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 22 30 37 42 46 49 50 43 32 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 16 9 6 5 3 2 3 -6 -3 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 243 221 222 218 217 214 228 233 232 244 252 252 237 SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.3 27.0 27.0 25.5 23.7 21.9 20.3 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 112 112 115 119 127 127 112 98 90 84 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 103 103 105 110 116 113 97 87 80 77 72 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.7 -55.6 -55.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 48 45 46 43 41 47 52 56 53 54 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 27 26 27 24 23 26 25 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 62 60 54 45 33 77 89 111 98 56 19 43 94 200 MB DIV 83 128 83 27 14 47 38 57 37 16 35 54 52 700-850 TADV 16 10 20 20 15 16 27 47 15 21 8 9 0 LAND (KM) 2015 2050 2092 2101 2120 2150 2195 2023 1905 1817 1436 1031 718 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.1 24.2 27.2 30.9 34.5 37.6 40.1 42.1 44.3 47.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.3 36.7 37.2 37.3 37.5 37.4 36.6 35.3 33.5 30.6 26.6 21.8 16.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 17 19 18 17 17 19 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -22. -27. -31. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -33. -32. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -9. -11. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -20. -28. -37. -45. -46. -50. -51. -51. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.8 36.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 622.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 76 72 66 60 52 43 35 34 30 29 29 31 18HR AGO 80 79 75 69 63 55 46 38 37 33 32 32 34 12HR AGO 80 77 76 70 64 56 47 39 38 34 33 33 35 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 64 56 47 39 38 34 33 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT