* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 31 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 34 32 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 34 36 34 33 29 26 24 22 21 21 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 34 38 38 37 41 45 36 34 26 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 0 -1 0 -2 -4 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 272 276 281 280 278 274 274 274 286 293 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 140 143 146 149 151 150 152 153 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 30 30 30 33 37 35 41 47 50 52 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 32 37 42 47 50 42 42 37 27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -18 -18 -28 -22 0 -34 19 8 12 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -4 -11 -10 -1 -3 -1 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 96 -12 90 133 207 402 649 916 1176 1389 1576 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 20.8 20.5 20.3 20.1 19.6 19.6 19.8 20.3 21.1 22.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.1 156.4 157.6 158.9 160.2 162.7 165.5 168.3 171.0 173.2 175.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 20 30 23 44 34 28 24 27 35 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -23. -33. -39. -43. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -17. -22. -26. -29. -30. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.0 155.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX