* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 72 66 61 51 44 37 34 35 33 31 29 V (KT) LAND 80 77 72 66 61 51 44 37 34 35 33 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 68 64 57 51 47 45 45 46 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 29 38 40 46 43 45 36 29 15 14 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 9 9 3 2 2 8 1 -1 -1 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 222 222 214 211 205 220 223 231 235 272 247 239 219 SST (C) 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.6 27.1 26.3 24.4 22.5 20.9 19.2 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 110 112 113 115 117 122 128 120 103 92 85 80 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 104 106 107 112 115 106 91 82 77 73 69 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -54.0 -54.8 -56.5 -56.9 -56.6 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.4 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 46 46 44 43 46 49 54 52 48 50 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 27 26 27 26 25 23 24 27 27 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 51 41 48 79 93 67 19 -35 -38 0 32 200 MB DIV 104 98 34 26 43 54 63 51 19 8 16 33 43 700-850 TADV 16 22 21 16 8 27 34 37 9 18 26 20 0 LAND (KM) 2035 2060 2086 2091 2107 2127 2147 1967 1927 1558 1167 871 494 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 22.0 23.1 24.5 25.9 29.1 32.7 36.1 39.0 41.4 43.4 45.9 49.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 36.9 37.2 37.2 37.2 36.6 35.8 34.2 31.5 27.9 23.5 19.3 15.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 17 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 12 CX,CY: -3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -17. -23. -28. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -11. -15. -23. -27. -30. -32. -31. -28. -26. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -7. -8. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -19. -29. -36. -43. -46. -45. -47. -49. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.8 36.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 631.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 72 66 61 51 44 37 34 35 33 31 29 18HR AGO 80 79 74 68 63 53 46 39 36 37 35 33 31 12HR AGO 80 77 76 70 65 55 48 41 38 39 37 35 33 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 55 48 41 38 39 37 35 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT