* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 33 32 30 27 23 21 22 23 23 22 V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 33 32 30 27 23 21 22 23 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 36 33 31 29 28 29 31 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 38 38 35 35 38 39 33 20 16 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 5 4 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 267 272 273 279 276 276 273 276 268 287 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 139 142 146 148 151 150 151 153 153 152 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -55.2 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 31 34 37 37 38 42 47 51 52 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 33 38 34 50 47 39 38 36 33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -2 -9 -23 -13 -27 -3 -3 16 0 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -13 -10 -6 -2 0 0 3 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 15 51 114 190 296 536 829 1090 1338 1613 1934 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 20.9 20.6 20.3 20.0 19.8 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.3 21.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.2 157.6 159.0 160.4 161.7 164.4 167.5 170.2 172.7 175.4 178.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 14 14 12 12 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 13 29 22 31 41 24 26 27 35 26 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -21. -29. -33. -35. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -17. -19. -18. -17. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.1 156.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.06 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX