* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 59 55 51 46 43 39 39 39 39 40 35 V (KT) LAND 70 65 59 55 51 46 43 39 39 39 39 40 35 V (KT) LGEM 70 65 61 57 54 49 46 43 42 43 44 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 28 36 38 42 41 45 40 35 23 20 12 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 6 5 6 4 3 2 -6 4 2 2 7 SHEAR DIR 215 214 212 205 208 221 228 233 247 254 239 212 198 SST (C) 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.8 27.0 25.4 23.6 21.8 20.6 18.6 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 115 117 119 125 127 111 98 89 85 78 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 105 106 107 108 113 113 97 86 80 77 72 69 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -54.7 -55.4 -56.5 -56.2 -55.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 6 5 3 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 43 43 44 45 54 56 50 52 50 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 26 27 27 27 28 27 29 31 31 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 62 49 48 54 85 80 75 46 1 -16 -4 33 72 200 MB DIV 97 45 33 43 64 39 54 40 23 13 44 53 55 700-850 TADV 23 25 12 4 19 20 35 25 8 16 17 21 -34 LAND (KM) 2050 2066 2092 2095 2111 2133 2048 1926 1802 1424 989 692 337 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 23.3 24.6 26.1 27.6 30.7 34.5 37.7 40.3 42.3 43.9 46.2 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 36.8 37.0 37.2 37.0 36.9 36.0 34.9 33.1 30.5 26.5 21.3 16.6 12.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 16 18 18 17 17 19 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -13. -19. -23. -27. -29. -29. -28. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -31. -31. -31. -31. -30. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.9 36.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 542.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 65 59 55 51 46 43 39 39 39 39 40 35 18HR AGO 70 69 63 59 55 50 47 43 43 43 43 44 39 12HR AGO 70 67 66 62 58 53 50 46 46 46 46 47 42 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 51 48 44 44 44 44 45 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT