* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 34 32 29 26 24 24 25 24 23 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 34 32 29 26 24 24 25 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 32 31 31 31 32 36 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 36 36 36 38 42 35 28 15 22 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 4 1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -6 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 269 274 280 282 272 268 268 270 277 314 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 147 148 150 151 150 152 153 150 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 29 31 34 35 34 41 45 50 55 57 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 39 36 38 46 39 32 31 25 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -9 -22 -16 -11 -13 11 0 23 -12 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -9 -11 -7 -3 1 2 4 2 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 89 178 250 349 468 730 966 1205 1459 1690 1904 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.8 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.1 159.5 160.8 162.2 163.5 166.3 168.8 171.3 173.9 176.2 178.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 28 22 38 46 30 31 24 30 32 23 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 820 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -20. -27. -32. -33. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 158.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX