* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 54 49 45 43 41 40 39 38 41 44 42 V (KT) LAND 65 59 54 49 45 43 41 40 39 38 41 44 42 V (KT) LGEM 65 60 55 52 49 45 43 41 40 39 42 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 36 39 42 44 44 47 38 27 14 16 19 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 3 4 1 5 3 1 -1 5 0 8 11 SHEAR DIR 211 210 209 208 217 220 229 230 254 241 230 204 207 SST (C) 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 27.1 26.5 24.8 23.0 21.3 20.6 18.2 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 116 119 122 128 122 106 94 86 84 79 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 105 107 109 112 116 107 93 83 77 76 73 71 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -54.2 -54.8 -56.0 -56.0 -56.5 -55.9 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 5 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 40 43 44 48 52 49 47 46 47 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 27 26 25 27 28 31 32 31 31 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 55 47 53 85 84 75 50 11 -12 -22 11 50 45 200 MB DIV 57 39 40 65 53 55 55 40 2 27 30 64 47 700-850 TADV 23 13 7 14 23 17 19 0 8 10 10 -9 -19 LAND (KM) 2095 2104 2121 2134 2161 2159 1951 1910 1661 1289 917 650 117 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 24.2 25.5 27.1 28.7 32.3 35.8 38.7 40.9 42.6 43.9 46.6 50.7 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.3 37.1 36.2 34.8 32.4 29.0 24.9 20.4 15.6 10.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 17 19 18 17 18 18 19 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -13. -18. -22. -27. -29. -29. -28. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -27. -24. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.9 37.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 489.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/13/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 59 54 49 45 43 41 40 39 38 41 44 42 18HR AGO 65 64 59 54 50 48 46 45 44 43 46 49 47 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 52 50 48 47 46 45 48 51 49 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 51 49 47 46 45 44 47 50 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT