* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 25 25 24 23 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 25 25 24 23 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 26 24 22 21 20 20 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 34 36 38 39 39 33 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 272 277 282 275 276 266 282 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 150 151 151 149 151 154 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -55.5 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 28 32 32 33 37 40 46 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 40 36 43 40 36 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -26 -22 -14 -17 14 10 10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -9 -8 -6 -2 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 200 281 402 513 635 899 1099 1331 1599 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 19.8 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.8 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.8 161.2 162.6 164.0 165.3 168.1 170.2 172.6 175.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 12 11 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 25 42 43 37 28 26 26 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 800 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -17. -26. -34. -40. -41. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -16. -16. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.1 159.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX