* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 50 47 45 43 42 42 41 42 45 43 39 V (KT) LAND 60 55 50 47 45 43 42 42 41 42 45 43 35 V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 48 45 42 40 38 38 40 44 47 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 38 41 44 43 50 45 34 15 9 10 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 2 2 0 2 -3 0 -1 -2 5 6 SHEAR DIR 212 211 209 216 217 224 230 240 262 233 169 171 181 SST (C) 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 25.7 23.9 22.3 21.0 19.0 16.4 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 114 117 119 123 126 128 114 100 91 86 80 75 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 108 110 112 113 114 100 88 81 77 73 70 69 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -55.9 -56.4 -56.6 -56.0 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 41 44 45 47 51 52 45 46 46 53 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 25 27 27 30 33 33 32 34 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 87 80 84 67 26 0 -11 -6 21 42 35 200 MB DIV 40 57 72 45 37 49 46 6 5 27 53 23 60 700-850 TADV 12 9 15 22 21 18 13 -6 2 6 20 -5 -42 LAND (KM) 2098 2097 2111 2131 2169 2061 1947 1785 1397 1014 703 363 -34 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 25.6 27.2 29.0 30.7 33.9 37.2 39.6 41.3 43.3 45.7 48.9 52.9 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 37.1 37.0 36.7 36.4 35.5 33.3 30.0 25.9 21.6 17.1 12.7 8.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 17 18 17 18 18 18 18 19 21 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -27. -26. -24. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 4. 3. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -19. -18. -15. -17. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.0 37.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 427.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 55 50 47 45 43 42 42 41 42 45 43 35 18HR AGO 60 59 54 51 49 47 46 46 45 46 49 47 39 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 49 48 48 47 48 51 49 41 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 46 45 45 44 45 48 46 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT