* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 45 42 41 42 39 41 44 42 38 28 V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 45 42 41 42 39 41 44 42 38 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 50 46 43 41 38 36 35 36 40 43 44 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 46 45 43 47 48 37 28 16 7 16 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 2 4 2 3 3 0 1 0 -1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 205 211 215 218 222 229 234 254 225 182 183 195 225 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 26.6 24.8 23.3 22.4 21.4 19.0 16.6 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 119 123 126 128 122 106 96 91 87 80 76 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 110 112 114 115 107 93 84 81 78 74 71 71 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -54.5 -54.9 -55.8 -55.6 -56.4 -56.3 -56.2 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 44 45 46 48 50 47 44 45 49 53 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 23 26 23 25 28 28 30 33 31 29 24 850 MB ENV VOR 45 72 80 81 69 38 -8 -35 -25 -6 20 7 22 200 MB DIV 45 57 42 58 48 56 -1 -13 20 28 49 39 64 700-850 TADV 7 19 23 20 22 12 4 5 0 0 -18 -29 15 LAND (KM) 2090 2105 2139 2167 2161 1978 1946 1599 1237 874 608 286 -17 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 27.2 28.9 30.7 32.4 35.7 38.3 40.0 40.9 42.6 45.5 49.2 53.6 LONG(DEG W) 37.1 36.9 36.8 36.4 36.0 34.5 31.6 27.9 23.8 19.8 15.9 11.4 6.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 16 19 22 25 27 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -25. -25. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. 1. 1. 3. 5. 2. -1. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -10. -13. -14. -13. -16. -14. -11. -13. -17. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.4 37.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/13/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 50 46 45 42 41 42 39 41 44 42 38 30 18HR AGO 55 54 50 49 46 45 46 43 45 48 46 42 34 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 47 46 47 44 46 49 47 43 35 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 41 42 39 41 44 42 38 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT