* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 26 26 25 24 23 20 19 19 19 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 26 26 25 24 23 20 19 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 26 25 25 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 38 39 41 42 33 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -2 -2 -4 2 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 279 271 265 270 267 279 271 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 150 150 151 153 150 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -55.3 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 30 31 34 38 39 44 50 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 48 51 47 33 31 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 0 -23 -26 -6 9 -7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -3 0 0 0 1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 435 549 677 785 900 1097 1323 1564 1810 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.0 18.9 19.2 19.4 20.2 21.4 22.4 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.5 164.0 165.4 166.7 168.0 170.2 172.6 175.0 177.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 36 35 29 27 28 30 35 26 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -16. -24. -32. -37. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.0 162.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX