* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 47 47 47 48 49 52 52 48 43 31 V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 47 47 47 48 49 52 52 48 43 31 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 47 46 43 42 42 43 46 48 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 45 44 45 49 42 34 14 14 9 26 32 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 3 1 0 1 3 -2 2 8 10 7 SHEAR DIR 214 217 220 220 225 231 240 240 250 192 201 239 261 SST (C) 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.0 25.5 24.0 22.7 22.0 20.9 18.7 16.7 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 123 127 128 127 111 100 92 89 84 79 76 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 112 114 115 112 97 87 81 79 75 73 72 71 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -54.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.8 -56.3 -56.1 -55.1 -55.2 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 43 46 48 48 51 50 46 47 44 41 38 37 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 32 33 31 30 28 21 850 MB ENV VOR 71 81 83 62 68 22 -4 -12 0 45 28 -23 -31 200 MB DIV 61 55 55 47 57 37 13 16 19 49 24 35 51 700-850 TADV 28 24 17 18 25 9 2 3 3 8 -36 43 65 LAND (KM) 2092 2121 2169 2156 2055 1968 1777 1433 1096 787 608 242 33 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 29.4 31.1 32.8 34.5 37.3 39.3 40.6 41.6 43.3 45.9 49.4 53.6 LONG(DEG W) 36.7 36.4 36.2 35.5 34.8 32.9 29.8 26.1 22.3 18.8 15.6 10.5 4.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 18 17 16 16 15 15 16 21 27 29 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 3 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 16 CX,CY: 1/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. -23. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -3. -3. -7. -12. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.6 36.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/14/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 52 49 47 47 47 48 49 52 52 48 43 31 18HR AGO 55 54 51 49 49 49 50 51 54 54 50 45 33 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 49 49 50 51 54 54 50 45 33 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 46 47 50 50 46 41 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT