* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 51 51 51 52 50 48 44 34 39 26 V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 51 51 51 52 50 48 44 34 39 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 49 47 45 44 44 45 44 44 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 47 44 46 44 46 31 24 9 12 23 41 38 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 2 0 6 0 2 2 10 15 13 17 SHEAR DIR 220 222 225 227 231 235 257 227 223 203 242 266 232 SST (C) 26.7 26.9 27.1 26.8 26.1 24.3 22.5 21.5 20.7 19.1 17.1 16.6 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 128 125 117 103 92 86 83 79 75 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 114 110 102 90 82 76 73 72 70 71 70 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.8 -54.8 -55.7 -56.1 -56.2 -54.6 -54.2 -56.8 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 51 52 49 48 49 41 37 42 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 24 25 27 29 32 32 30 29 25 33 26 850 MB ENV VOR 83 78 64 58 41 -1 -32 -4 31 62 -88 -33 -56 200 MB DIV 59 62 48 52 47 20 0 37 32 34 19 40 41 700-850 TADV 31 13 19 24 18 1 14 0 7 -23 9 187 -90 LAND (KM) 2111 2114 2141 2052 1971 1883 1454 1111 876 670 458 85 -6 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 31.5 33.2 34.9 36.5 39.1 41.0 42.5 43.8 45.6 47.9 51.1 55.1 LONG(DEG W) 36.2 35.7 35.1 34.4 33.7 31.0 26.5 22.7 19.9 16.7 12.7 7.7 1.9 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 17 17 18 18 14 13 16 20 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 20 CX,CY: 3/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -23. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -5. 5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -5. -7. -11. -21. -16. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.7 36.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 334.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/14/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 52 51 51 51 52 50 48 44 34 39 29 18HR AGO 55 54 52 51 51 51 52 50 48 44 34 39 29 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 50 51 49 47 43 33 38 28 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 46 44 42 38 28 33 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT