* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 56 58 61 62 63 62 56 52 50 46 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 56 58 61 62 63 62 56 36 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 55 53 50 50 51 50 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 44 46 41 37 23 8 10 18 32 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 3 1 0 3 16 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 224 227 231 229 249 263 210 175 192 192 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 26.7 25.9 25.0 23.2 21.4 20.0 17.8 16.1 15.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 124 115 108 96 87 82 77 74 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 115 109 101 94 85 78 75 72 70 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -55.0 -55.5 -55.8 -55.9 -56.7 -56.6 -56.4 -54.1 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.7 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 52 53 51 49 55 53 46 41 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 23 26 28 32 32 32 32 31 35 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 83 78 59 27 -18 -33 -6 52 99 -87 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 49 43 54 27 24 48 38 57 31 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 8 19 11 5 7 21 21 3 -21 -57 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2169 2039 1921 1883 1858 1721 1345 974 666 179 -24 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 33.8 35.6 37.1 38.5 40.8 42.7 44.8 47.2 50.2 53.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.5 36.0 35.5 34.4 33.3 29.7 25.6 21.0 16.0 11.1 6.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 18 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 22 CX,CY: 2/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -19. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. 11. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 1. -3. -5. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.0 36.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/14/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 56 58 61 62 63 62 56 36 31 30 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 57 60 61 62 61 55 35 30 29 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 54 57 58 59 58 52 32 27 26 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 50 51 52 51 45 25 20 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT