* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 62 62 63 65 63 56 55 52 51 48 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 62 62 63 65 63 56 55 52 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 63 61 57 54 52 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 49 42 33 31 14 12 8 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 0 3 0 5 0 3 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 226 228 230 233 253 213 170 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.5 24.7 22.8 20.9 19.4 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 120 112 106 94 86 81 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 112 105 97 92 83 77 74 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.8 -55.5 -55.5 -55.1 -55.5 -56.0 -55.6 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 51 47 51 53 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 30 31 32 33 30 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 86 79 53 17 -20 -19 65 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 50 49 49 43 22 81 25 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 17 15 8 3 14 -4 15 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2018 1925 1844 1839 1848 1645 1242 884 513 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.9 36.5 37.8 39.1 41.2 43.2 45.6 48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.1 36.4 35.6 34.3 32.9 28.9 24.4 19.6 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 18 19 20 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 19 CX,CY: 2/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 33.3 37.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/14/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 61 62 62 63 65 63 56 55 52 51 48 18HR AGO 60 59 60 61 61 62 64 62 55 54 51 50 47 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 57 58 60 58 51 50 47 46 43 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 51 53 51 44 43 40 39 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT