* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 27 26 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 27 26 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 21 21 21 21 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 41 40 39 39 39 39 39 41 42 48 39 36 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 -1 -5 -8 -10 -6 -7 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 268 273 273 274 279 284 285 280 282 277 293 289 292 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 148 148 146 144 143 144 146 150 151 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -56.0 -55.6 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 39 42 47 52 58 58 58 54 56 55 55 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 53 46 41 37 29 5 4 -1 2 5 6 13 14 200 MB DIV -20 6 4 5 -3 -12 -15 -17 -9 -17 -27 -45 -41 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 -2 -1 -8 -3 -8 -7 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 821 892 937 956 977 1051 1165 1292 1406 1465 1533 1629 1776 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.9 23.0 23.5 23.8 23.6 22.9 21.8 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 166.9 167.7 168.3 168.7 169.1 170.0 171.1 172.3 173.4 174.0 174.7 175.6 176.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 4 4 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 27 26 24 27 27 31 30 33 37 35 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -22. -37. -49. -58. -58. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -7. -13. -22. -30. -36. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.8 166.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX