* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 59 59 60 61 56 50 49 47 46 43 V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 59 59 60 61 56 50 49 47 46 43 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 58 57 53 51 49 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 50 42 33 33 28 16 14 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 5 -1 -1 2 1 1 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 227 222 234 247 215 217 189 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.3 25.5 24.8 23.9 21.9 19.9 17.2 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 119 111 106 100 90 84 78 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 103 96 92 88 81 77 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -56.1 -55.9 -55.3 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 49 45 45 49 50 51 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 29 31 30 32 32 28 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 72 55 15 -4 -17 40 107 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 60 56 35 16 50 39 62 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 13 7 0 0 0 14 -39 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1911 1850 1801 1837 1884 1498 1060 597 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.5 37.9 39.0 40.1 42.3 44.8 48.0 51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.3 35.5 34.7 33.1 31.6 27.4 22.1 15.9 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 16 16 18 21 25 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 18 CX,CY: 3/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. -4. -10. -11. -13. -14. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 35.1 36.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 378.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/15/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 59 59 59 60 61 56 50 49 47 46 43 18HR AGO 60 59 59 59 59 60 61 56 50 49 47 46 43 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 56 57 58 53 47 46 44 43 40 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 51 52 47 41 40 38 37 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT