* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 26 24 23 21 21 20 20 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 39 36 36 38 39 43 45 47 47 51 37 34 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -4 -7 -14 -7 -11 -9 -3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 275 272 272 281 285 283 280 284 279 282 286 292 294 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 150 148 145 144 143 144 148 151 153 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.8 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 40 44 51 56 57 59 57 56 57 57 57 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 51 46 43 34 25 9 10 3 10 10 17 16 13 200 MB DIV 9 0 11 -2 7 -21 -6 -3 -7 -26 -7 -47 -42 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 3 1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -7 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 950 1034 1069 1094 1108 1144 1216 1289 1351 1390 1452 1544 1683 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.9 22.8 23.2 23.3 22.9 22.1 21.0 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 168.3 169.2 169.7 170.1 170.4 170.9 171.6 172.3 172.9 173.3 173.9 174.7 175.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 7 8 6 4 4 2 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 32 29 26 25 28 30 34 36 39 33 33 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 15. 21. 26. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -23. -39. -53. -61. -61. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -23. -34. -40. -41. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 168.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX