* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 58 59 59 56 48 30 26 22 19 16 V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 58 59 59 56 48 35 31 27 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 58 56 53 49 45 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 40 31 25 17 23 15 28 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 2 5 1 3 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 231 236 243 241 198 196 186 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.3 24.5 23.5 22.6 20.4 18.4 16.0 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 110 104 98 93 84 79 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 95 91 87 83 77 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.4 -54.2 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 43 43 48 50 50 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 31 31 32 33 30 27 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 38 0 -14 -29 -7 82 87 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 25 24 26 21 76 47 54 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 4 2 8 7 0 17 -48 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1840 1829 1831 1811 1610 1182 839 255 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.9 38.2 39.5 40.6 41.6 44.0 46.7 49.9 53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.2 34.0 32.8 30.7 28.6 23.7 18.5 12.2 5.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 19 20 22 25 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 19 CX,CY: 6/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 1. -3. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -4. -12. -30. -34. -38. -41. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.9 35.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/15/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 59 58 59 59 56 48 35 31 27 23 20 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 59 59 56 48 35 31 27 23 20 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 56 56 53 45 32 28 24 20 17 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 51 48 40 27 23 19 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT