* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 28 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 28 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 26 25 24 24 24 23 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 34 33 35 39 43 43 43 47 40 42 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -2 -5 -9 -9 -7 -8 -2 -5 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 272 274 280 281 279 281 278 286 278 283 282 281 278 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 150 148 145 145 145 148 151 153 153 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -55.4 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.5 -55.5 -55.7 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 43 50 53 57 59 60 57 57 55 58 55 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 36 36 23 17 12 9 23 19 25 16 16 200 MB DIV -5 5 3 1 -3 0 -14 -2 -20 -18 -34 -55 -36 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 4 0 0 -5 -3 -7 -9 -6 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 1059 1142 1181 1209 1218 1248 1297 1359 1410 1463 1533 1652 1796 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.8 22.4 22.6 22.5 22.0 21.1 20.1 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 169.5 170.4 170.9 171.3 171.5 171.9 172.4 173.0 173.5 174.0 174.6 175.6 176.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 28 28 27 31 35 38 37 33 32 33 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -22. -37. -49. -57. -58. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -21. -30. -36. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 169.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX