* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 59 59 60 57 45 29 24 20 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 59 59 60 57 41 32 28 23 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 57 57 54 50 40 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 32 28 21 21 21 15 27 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 2 1 2 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 239 245 241 216 209 190 185 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.5 23.7 22.7 21.7 19.5 16.9 15.4 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 104 99 93 89 82 77 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 90 87 83 81 76 73 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.8 -56.1 -56.2 -55.9 -54.9 -53.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.8 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 41 45 48 47 47 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 28 28 29 32 28 22 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 9 -1 -19 -11 54 100 135 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 35 35 25 70 48 54 42 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 -1 5 0 31 -19 4 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1766 1803 1851 1684 1498 1044 549 -27 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.6 40.7 41.8 42.8 45.3 48.2 52.8 58.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.7 33.2 31.6 29.6 27.5 21.8 15.3 8.8 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 19 22 25 28 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 18 CX,CY: 8/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. -4. -11. -21. -22. -24. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -3. -15. -31. -36. -40. -45. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 38.4 34.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 436.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/15/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 59 59 59 60 57 41 32 28 23 19 DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 58 58 59 56 40 31 27 22 18 DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 56 57 54 38 29 25 20 16 DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 51 48 32 23 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT