* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 30 32 33 38 37 42 37 40 32 29 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -2 -4 -11 -10 -7 -3 -4 -2 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 272 278 280 280 284 282 287 281 280 288 294 294 293 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 148 146 144 143 144 146 148 149 150 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.8 -56.2 -56.1 -56.0 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 55 57 59 60 59 56 57 56 54 51 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 46 40 36 28 19 13 15 18 22 26 30 21 28 200 MB DIV 6 8 17 -2 -5 -1 -8 -15 -5 -17 -47 -18 -36 700-850 TADV 1 4 6 1 0 0 -4 -6 -4 -8 -5 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 1123 1183 1213 1224 1239 1277 1331 1415 1485 1595 1729 1919 3922 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.6 23.3 23.6 23.5 23.1 22.3 21.7 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 170.3 171.0 171.4 171.6 171.8 172.2 172.7 173.5 174.2 175.3 176.6 178.4 180.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 6 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 30 33 38 36 33 33 36 29 22 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -19. -32. -42. -47. -46. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -8. -16. -22. -25. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.6 170.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX