* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 58 59 57 50 36 39 35 30 26 22 V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 58 59 57 50 33 37 33 28 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 58 56 52 47 39 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 32 24 21 22 18 29 38 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 0 2 1 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 242 243 213 205 197 198 200 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 23.6 22.6 21.5 20.4 18.2 15.7 14.8 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 98 93 88 85 80 76 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 86 83 80 78 75 73 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.5 -55.8 -56.0 -55.8 -55.7 -54.0 -52.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 -1.1 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 46 47 48 47 47 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 26 28 29 27 23 17 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -10 -22 -14 13 81 89 132 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 28 27 56 81 36 56 46 -123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 8 0 -11 17 -50 1 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1809 1857 1679 1460 1254 811 144 -38 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.5 40.7 41.8 42.9 44.0 47.0 51.0 56.1 61.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.1 31.3 29.5 27.1 24.6 18.4 11.6 4.8 -1.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 21 24 28 31 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -19. -23. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -15. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -10. -24. -21. -25. -30. -34. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 39.5 33.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/15/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 58 58 59 57 50 33 37 33 28 24 20 18HR AGO 60 59 58 58 59 57 50 33 37 33 28 24 20 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 57 55 48 31 35 31 26 22 18 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 49 42 25 29 25 20 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT