* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 20 20 19 19 20 20 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 30 32 35 33 34 34 38 34 31 26 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -6 -7 -6 -5 -2 -4 -2 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 277 281 281 287 290 284 294 280 289 284 304 288 291 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 147 144 144 144 147 149 151 154 155 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -55.5 -55.8 -55.5 -56.1 -55.9 -56.0 -55.2 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 56 57 58 58 56 56 56 53 50 50 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 41 34 27 16 15 15 18 24 28 36 39 50 39 200 MB DIV 0 5 -16 -7 -12 -15 -10 -34 -12 -37 -34 -25 -26 700-850 TADV 4 6 1 0 0 -4 -4 -7 -9 -8 -5 -7 -3 LAND (KM) 1145 1185 1209 1236 1277 1362 1457 1548 1626 1741 1899 2047 4208 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.4 23.8 23.7 23.1 22.0 20.7 19.4 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 170.7 171.2 171.5 171.8 172.2 173.0 173.9 174.8 175.6 176.7 178.1 179.3 180.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 6 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 33 36 38 36 29 33 35 29 25 47 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -15. -29. -39. -44. -43. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. -4. -12. -18. -23. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.3 170.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX