* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 48 49 47 41 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 48 49 47 36 32 28 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 47 46 46 45 42 33 34 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 25 22 23 23 30 35 61 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 2 0 15 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 245 221 200 204 193 206 204 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 22.5 21.4 20.2 19.3 16.4 15.4 13.5 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 93 88 84 82 77 75 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 83 80 77 76 73 72 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.9 -56.3 -56.0 -55.9 -54.8 -52.9 -51.9 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -1.0 1.1 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 45 47 47 46 44 48 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 28 29 25 21 15 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -30 -19 16 59 85 90 139 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 23 57 82 65 35 45 60 -279 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 8 4 -13 18 -47 93 -9 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1853 1635 1430 1195 989 453 -97 95 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.5 41.8 43.0 44.3 45.6 48.9 53.5 58.4 63.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.2 28.9 26.7 23.8 21.0 14.5 7.7 1.6 -3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 22 24 26 29 31 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -7. -17. -24. -32. -38. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -6. -14. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. -3. -9. -23. -27. -33. -38. -44. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 40.5 31.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.56 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 8.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/16/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 47 48 49 47 36 32 28 22 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 49 50 48 37 33 29 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 48 46 35 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 39 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT