* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 31 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 31 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 27 26 26 26 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 34 34 34 40 34 40 33 29 21 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -7 -9 -8 -8 -3 -7 -1 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 276 280 286 289 285 288 284 283 292 298 287 288 289 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 147 146 145 143 144 147 149 150 151 153 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.8 -56.0 -56.0 -55.8 -55.2 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 57 57 55 57 55 53 51 52 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 41 31 19 21 23 20 22 24 38 31 35 34 25 200 MB DIV 12 0 -6 -18 0 -6 -5 -18 -11 -25 -21 -30 -14 700-850 TADV 7 3 1 2 0 -2 -3 -5 -9 -6 -3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1232 1275 1290 1308 1328 1392 1467 1537 1626 1753 1907 2056 4072 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.3 23.8 23.6 22.8 21.8 20.9 20.0 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.1 172.3 172.5 172.7 173.3 174.0 174.7 175.6 176.8 178.2 179.5 180.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 7 8 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 31 36 40 37 29 34 35 29 24 38 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -18. -31. -40. -44. -43. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -9. -18. -24. -26. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.6 171.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX