* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 41 42 41 40 29 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 41 42 41 40 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 41 39 38 37 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 24 20 17 18 24 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 5 2 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 229 209 187 187 213 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 21.6 20.4 19.3 18.3 15.9 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 88 85 82 81 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 78 77 76 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.6 -56.1 -56.0 -55.4 -53.9 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 46 44 41 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 28 30 27 23 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -20 23 65 82 78 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 52 95 68 27 50 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 0 -5 24 -1 67 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1687 1480 1286 1036 820 89 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.8 43.0 44.1 45.5 46.8 51.0 55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.6 27.3 25.0 21.6 18.3 10.6 4.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 24 27 30 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -6. -11. -15. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -16. -18. -22. -25. -28. -32. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 41.8 29.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.61 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/16/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 41 42 41 40 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 44 43 33 33 33 33 33 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 40 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 23 23 23 23 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT