* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 30 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 25 24 25 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 33 33 37 41 41 35 30 23 19 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -5 -8 -5 -8 -8 -4 -4 0 -1 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 276 282 283 281 281 290 281 285 294 308 287 294 282 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 146 146 144 143 143 146 147 148 150 153 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.1 -55.9 -56.0 -56.2 -55.6 -55.5 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 54 56 56 56 55 57 56 56 53 54 53 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 31 21 20 22 20 20 28 30 32 31 31 33 31 200 MB DIV 10 -5 -16 6 -27 -6 -15 -33 -36 -27 -25 -32 -25 700-850 TADV 4 1 2 1 -5 -1 -7 -6 -8 -2 -7 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1284 1331 1360 1379 1400 1464 1507 1568 1680 1874 3646 3560 3461 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.8 23.4 23.7 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.3 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 172.2 172.7 173.0 173.2 173.4 174.0 174.4 175.0 176.1 178.0 180.4 183.1 185.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 4 7 10 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 35 39 40 34 32 33 29 24 32 40 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -8. -19. -31. -39. -43. -42. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -4. -10. -18. -22. -23. -21. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.2 172.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX