* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 25 25 25 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 35 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 33 34 33 28 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 16 17 15 12 15 33 53 76 71 89 86 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 1 -4 5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 284 285 281 282 288 276 267 253 259 255 242 237 238 SST (C) 27.8 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.7 26.3 23.1 22.4 22.9 21.3 22.9 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 126 122 117 113 112 120 97 94 96 89 98 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 107 103 100 95 96 104 88 85 86 81 89 78 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.7 -52.7 -53.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -55.2 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 4 3 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 55 55 58 55 51 51 53 60 66 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 18 16 14 12 9 10 9 7 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 10 -22 -23 -19 25 49 38 57 79 83 63 200 MB DIV 0 -7 6 14 0 24 -10 41 48 47 59 87 90 700-850 TADV 17 15 13 15 8 13 0 2 18 7 13 56 117 LAND (KM) -154 -264 -373 -476 -566 -502 -171 60 180 373 402 734 1315 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.3 35.0 36.2 37.4 38.8 39.7 40.9 42.1 42.9 43.2 44.5 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.3 83.2 83.2 83.3 81.2 77.1 71.3 64.4 57.8 51.8 44.2 35.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 12 10 13 19 25 25 23 25 30 31 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 5. -2. -15. -29. -45. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -16. -19. -22. -28. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -6. -16. -31. -46. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.6 81.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.75 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.9% 8.7% 7.4% 5.9% 8.0% 4.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.0% 2.8% 1.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/16/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 35 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 35 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 26 27 33 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT