* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/16/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 20 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 32 35 44 42 42 37 35 30 25 26 27 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -3 -7 -8 -8 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 279 277 277 281 284 281 287 281 285 275 281 276 273 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 145 144 144 145 146 147 148 149 149 152 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -54.8 -55.3 -55.3 -55.6 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 55 57 61 63 61 64 62 60 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 20 23 27 26 22 35 24 26 21 21 28 34 32 200 MB DIV -20 7 -5 -12 1 -16 -29 -24 -10 1 -14 -16 -34 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 -3 -2 -5 -5 -6 -2 -6 -3 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 1503 1585 1636 1677 1708 1729 1760 1833 1977 3797 3752 3739 3758 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.6 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 174.4 175.2 175.7 176.1 176.4 176.6 176.9 177.6 179.0 180.6 182.0 183.0 184.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 3 2 1 3 5 7 7 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 34 32 30 29 27 22 22 27 27 33 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -7. -19. -32. -42. -47. -46. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -18. -22. -24. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.2 174.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/16/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.06 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/16/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX